We need to approach this space with an open mind and without being overly tribalistic
Short-term vs long-term inflation expectations are telling two different stories about the fundamental strength of the economy
Low rates are Not Inflationary, Commercial Bank Credit, Historical Inflation Subcomponents, Bridgewater’s Outlook, Steepening Yield Curve, and the US Debt Forecast
Asset price performance has been quite solid across the board and the Yield Curve has continued its steepening, with rates in the long end getting closer to 2%
CPI vs. Real Inflation, Chile’s USD Situation, Operation Warp Speed, Oil Rigs & Productivity, Debts, Deficits & the Fed Balance Sheet, and Decomposition Rates of Marine Debris
The reflation narrative has become the overwhelming consensus view for 2021. This implies a weaker dollar, higher bond yields, and outperformance from emerging markets and commodities
MicroStrategy Converting Fiat to Bitcoin, ZIRP and Intrinsic Valuations, Fed Balance Sheet, Labors Share of Output, Private Capital Flows, and Size of Fiscal Relief Packages
US Tech, Gold, and Bitcoin did very well, whilst the US Dollar and Crude Oil were the big losers of the year
Whilst the potential for inflation has been on the rise recently, we still feel it’s unlikely that we’ll see any undesired increase in price levels at least for the next year.
S&P500 the Fed Balance Sheet, Bitcoin Correlations, Ford and GM Merge to Battle Tesla, Interest on Debt, Real Wage Growth, and ESG Holdings
What the US elections result has taken away from the reflationary narrative has been more than offset by the vaccines headlines.
The dollar bear case with insights from Luke Gromen, Juliette Declercq, and A.G. Bisset