Everything we've ever written. Enjoy.

Everything we've ever written.
Enjoy 161 posts

Charts of the Month - May '23

Charts of the Month - May '23

First time reading Lykeion? Sign up here. Let the Games Begin Oil M&A is back! It’s been a while since we’ve seen big M&A moves in Oil & Gas, but that’s all about to change. After sequential record-breaking years by U.S. super majors Exxon and

Tim Purcell
Lykeion Research - April '23

Lykeion Research - April '23

MOVE vs VIX, The Dollar's Demise, Turkey's Elections, ISM and Unemployment, Russia-Ukraine War Update, Brazil's Geopolitical Strategy, and Sudan's Proxy War.

Research
Episode #2: Julian Brigden

Episode #2: Julian Brigden

Roger & Julian discuss the current macro landscape and how the Fed likely knew a hard landing was always going to be the likely scenario.

Roger Hirst
Charts of the Month - Jan '23

Charts of the Month - Jan '23

First time reading Lykeion? Sign up here. Black Gold “When we think about commodities in physical markets, they’re what we call volume-metric markets. They’re driven by the quantity consumed. To be bullish on an oil market or a copper market, it’s really easy. You look at the

Tim Purcell
Laying the Foundations

Laying the Foundations

The first publication of Lykeion Research lays the groundwork for the converging worlds of Geopolitics & Macro.

Research
Charts of the Month - May '22

Charts of the Month - May '22

Student Bailouts, Secretary of Energy, Oil & Gas Drawdowns, Lithium vs Hydrogen, US Crops for Fuel, Tech's Bloodbath, Bitcoin in 401(k)s, Inflation LEVEL

Tim Purcell
On Inflation vs. Deflation

On Inflation vs. Deflation

If you believe in inflation or deflation, chances are, you're somehow right. For now. But we need to dive deep to figure out what the future holds for this 'debate of our time'

Tim Purcell
Economic vs. Money Growth

Economic vs. Money Growth

Global PMIs are closely correlated with growth in the global money supply. So we asked our contributor network why this matters, and their answers range from fundamental, to techinical, to philosophical (thanks Sune!)

Tim Purcell
Reverse Repo's at All-Time High

Reverse Repo's at All-Time High

The Fed's Reverse Repo facility is at an all-time high. But "Why Does This Chart Matter?" Find out what our contributors think; Mike Green, Jeff Snider, Luke Gromen, Seth Levine, and Roger Hirst

Tim Purcell
101 in Sustainable Finance

101 in Sustainable Finance

The success or failure of this new investment framework will highly depend on data availability and accuracy, something that needs to significantly improve before sustainable finance can really become mainstream.

Tim Purcell
The Long-Term Dollar Shortage

The Long-Term Dollar Shortage

The long-term dollar shortage trend is the current monetary state we live in, where global economic growth is outpacing the supply of the global reserve currency.

Tim Purcell
Charts of the Month - January - '21

Charts of the Month - January - '21

CPI vs. Real Inflation, Chile’s USD Situation, Operation Warp Speed, Oil Rigs & Productivity, Debts, Deficits & the Fed Balance Sheet, and Decomposition Rates of Marine Debris

Tim Purcell
The Risks to 2021 Consensus Outlook

The Risks to 2021 Consensus Outlook

The reflation narrative has become the overwhelming consensus view for 2021. This implies a weaker dollar, higher bond yields, and outperformance from emerging markets and commodities.

Roger Hirst
Charts of the Month - December '21

Charts of the Month - December '21

MicroStrategy Converting Fiat to Bitcoin, ZIRP and Intrinsic Valuations, Fed Balance Sheet, Labors Share of Output, Private Capital Flows, and Size of Fiscal Relief Packages

Tim Purcell
Two Possible Types of Reflation

Two Possible Types of Reflation

Whilst the potential for inflation has been on the rise recently, we still feel it’s unlikely that we’ll see any undesired increase in price levels at least for the next year.

Roger Hirst
Austerity and Future Debt Payments

Austerity and Future Debt Payments

Given the recent $20 trillion of stimulus sponsored by governments and Central Banks all over the world to keep the global economy afloat amidst the COVID pandemic, we asked ourselves who and especially how are we going to pay for this spending regime.

Roger Hirst
More Stimulus: A Policy Maker’s Playbook

More Stimulus: A Policy Maker’s Playbook

Many global data points appear to be carving out a V-shaped recovery. This is deeply misleading, merely reflecting the depth of the economic decline, rather than the success of the rebound. Leaders are already preparing to add yet more stimulus.

Roger Hirst
Mike Green on Passive Flows

Mike Green on Passive Flows

The most important message coming out of the markets is not the overall severity of the economic crisis, but rather an indicator of the already in place fragile market structure that is being exposed.

Tim Purcell
Debt, Deficit, and Future Financing

Debt, Deficit, and Future Financing

U.S. government debt has grown to +$26 trillion today and for the first time in history, total debt to GDP will rise above 100% in 2021 (potentially 2020 depending on continued COVID response)

Tim Purcell
The Rise of the Retail Investor

The Rise of the Retail Investor

We’ve seen a huge amount of new retail investors joining the financial markets, with the ambition of finding opportunities to “buy the dip”. Whilst they have benefitted from the rebound, we question how much longer can this last.

Diego Tremiterra