The Case for a Soft Landing in the US
We lay out a four-step process that showcases how a US soft landing could materialize.
Everything we've ever written.
Enjoy 136 posts.
Charts of the Month - November '22
Wealth vs GDP, Deglobalization Rising, Structural Shifts in Sector Returns, The Shifting Semiconductor Landscape, The Idiocy of Climate Policy, and Black Friday Madness
China Update, an Emerging Poland, and a Bright Brazilian Future
Mystery brewing in China, a rising Poland, and politics aside, Brazil has a bright future
Israel & Lebanon: A Maritime Border Agreement
Natural gas fields provide some common ground for a maritime border agreement
Bear Markets: How to Identify a Bottom
We highlight a framework that helps us get a sense of what round of the current bear market we are in.
Bitcoin: The Bull and The Bear
We clarify the bull and bear arguments you’re likely to hear about in this part of the cycle.
Charts of the Month - October '22
Operating Leverage, Supermajors, Global Oil Reserves, Cash Account Returns, Yield Games, China Exposure
U.S. vs Saudi Arabia: a broken relationship with global repercussions
Deep dive into the increasing tensions between the U.S. & Saudi Arabia.
Mittelstanding Together
Steven K.N. Wilkinson's guest post on the German industrial complex navigating a pivotal moment in history
Q3 Markets Update: A Cross-Asset Bear Market
We look back at what happened over the last 9 months of the year.
Charts of the Month - September '22
Currencies in Crisis, The Mother of All Macro Charts, Fed Funds and Crisis', Global Petroleum Production, Corporate Margins and Real Wages, The Wealth Gap, Demographics
Using Unemployment Data to Time Equity Market Bottoms
How can we use Initial Jobless Claims to time the bottoming of equity markets?
Into Year End, It’s All About Policy Makers
With an energy crisis, elections, geopolitical risks and ramping inflation, policy makers will have plenty of tough decisions to make into year-end.
Charts of the Month - August '22
Inflation Reduction Act, CINE vs AMC, Concentration of PV and Semis, Oil Supplies, Elemental Power
Bitcoin and Time Horizons
Bridge protocols, Bitcoin's investment time horizons, and New addresses momentum.
A Geopolitical Primer on Taiwan
What's happening in Taiwan and why does it matter?
Stock Market Rally, China Rebound in 2H, and Commodity Prices vs Volumes
Stock market rallies could be self-defeating, the likelihood of China rebounding in 2H, and the preference for direct commodities exposure.
The EU and Its Russian Energy Dependence
Can the EU move away from Russian imports? We break it down for you.
July at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - July '22
Tesla vs. Toyota, PEs at Market Bottoms, Energy Arbitrage, Sovereign Defaults, Nuclear Reactors, Home Sales by Price Range, World Cup Spending
Nat Gas, LNG, and the Need for Alternatives to Russian Pipelines
Natural Gas and LNG markets are top of mind for global geopolitics. What should we be aware of?
Financial Conditions Index vs. Inflation
Are conditions tight enough to slow inflation?
Markets in 2H: Earnings Downgrades and Margin Compression
We look back at what markets did in the first half of the year and highlight the main themes for the second half.
June at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - June '22
The BoJ Experiment, Policy Makers Constraint Framework, Particulate Emissions from Tires, Post Secondary Enrollment, Refiners and Crack Spreads
The Euro, the State of the Bear Market, and the Need for a Stronger USD
Deep dive into the current macro set-up, with a special focus on Europe, Japan, and the US.
DeFi's Liquidity Issues and BTC's Market Value to Realized Value
Breaking down the Crypto Sell-Off, the MVRV, and the Ethereum Merge.
A Q&A with Doomberg
Covering energy, wealth creation and preservation, and deep-dives into a select few of their pieces.
What Would It Take for the USD to Lose its Reserve Status?
A deep dive into what led the US dollar to become the global reserve currency, and what it'd take for that to change.
Market Sell-Off: What's Next?
Quantitative Tightening, Market Sell-Off, and the Corporate Put is Back
May at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - May '22
Student Bailouts, Secretary of Energy, Oil & Gas Drawdowns, Lithium vs Hydrogen, US Crops for Fuel, Tech's Bloodbath, Bitcoin in 401(k)s, Inflation LEVEL
Capitalism at Work
We look at what recent price performance implies for the future of BTC, and explain the Luna and Terra collapse.
Time to be Contrarian?
Given where consensus stands currently, what are the options for investors?
Yen Weakness, Why It Matters, and Recession Risks
We cover the latest developments around the Japanese Yen, and dissect its implication for Asia and the rest of the World.
April at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - April '22
US Budget, Netflix vs. Disney, Streaming Services, Owners of US Debt, Patagonia Supply Chains, Apple's Cash Hoard
Why Does This Chart Matter?
The number of recessions has declined since the Great Depression - is this a good thing?
The Investment Case for Latin America
Recent global geopolitical developments might just be the necessary catalyst for the region to finally unleash its long-overdue potential.
Bitcoin in Q1: Outperforming Risk-On Assets
Despite the range-bound price performance, there is plenty to learn from Q1.
Markets in Q1: Inflation, Energy, and De-Globalization
We dive into the main themes coming out of Q1'22.
March at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - March '22
Gas Shortages, Oil Exports, LatAm VC Investments, YTD Sector Returns, GBTC Conversion, Impact vs ESG, and the Foo
Recession Risk Indicator: Yield Curve or Inflation?
Should we look at the yield curve or at inflation levels to assess the real risk of a recession?
The Geopolitics of Food
The global food system today is at risk.
The Weaponization of Money and Finance
‘Temporary’ changes to the rule of law during times of crisis have rarely remained temporary.
Construction: An Impact Opportunity
Deep dive on the circular construction investment case.
February at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - February '22
Food Prices, Inflation, Natural Gas, Supply Chains, Share Buybacks
Bitcoin: The Macro Decoupling
We analyse the potential for Bitcoin to decouple from the current macro narrative.
The Case for Peak Hawkishness
What if we already reached peak hawkish sentiment?
Why Does This Map Matter?
Why Does This Map Matter?
Explained: Russia and Ukraine
All you need to know about the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
January at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - January '22
Fed Funds Rate, Yields & Mortgages, The Growth Equation, Sustainability to Impact, Tennis
Higher Rates, Peak Margins, and How We're Allocating
Peak profit margins and hawkish environment increase the downside risk of the liquidity trade, which still has a lot more to go.
Oil: Asia's Growing Interest in the Middle East
The US is leaving the Middle East, whilst Asia is becoming more dependent on it.
Too Much ESG, Too Little Impact
Labeling impact funds correctly matters more than you might think.
Bitcoin: Look at 2021 to Get 2022 Right
We look at what Bitcoin and Web 3.0 did in 2021.
The US Dollar in 2022: Cautiously Bullish
We look at what the USD did in 2021 and make the case for 2022.
2021 at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past year.
Charts of the Month - December '21
Topic of the Year: Inflation, A Generational Shift in Fund Flows, Looking Forward to the US Dollar and Oil, and a Little Lykeion Fun
What is Geopolitics, and Why Does it Matter?
Understanding geopolitics matters much more now than it mattered 30 years ago.
COP26: The Glass ‘Half Full’ and ‘Half Empty’
We go beyond the headlines and highlight the good and bad of COP26.
Charts of the Month - November '21
Real Yields, Debt, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, S&P Concentration, Fundamentals
November at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Forget China, look into Energy, Crypto, and Value
We're not interested in buying the China Tech dip - there's plenty of opportunities elsewhere.
Per Capita Carbon Emissions
Global per Capita Carbon Emissions and Why They Matter
Don't Fear All-Time Highs
Investing at new All-Time Highs has historically brought good results to investors.
Repricing of Rates, VAR Shocks, and the Dollar
How can monetary policy help solve the problem of higher input prices? It can't.
October at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - October '21
Fertilizer Prices, Capital Goods Orders, Nuclear to the Rescue, Gilt's on the Move, Concentration of Media and Batteries
The European Energy Crisis
This crisis centers on the intersection of bad weather for wind energy generation and decades of poor policy planning.
The Race to a Bitcoin ETF
We might have the first US Bitcoin ETF being approved as early as next week.
Interest Rate Swap Spreads
Negative Interest Rate Swap Spreads and why they matter
Global Risks: Energy and China
The energy crisis is likely to get worse, and China risks will likely be contained.
September at Lykeion
We look back at what we've written over the past month.
Charts of the Month - September '21
Remittances, Revenue per FTE, CAPEX by Industry, High Yield Debt with Negative Interest, Dying From... , Sub 3-Hour Flights
Carbon Markets: Trading and Voluntary Schemes
We clarify the differences between trading and voluntary schemes, as well as point out what's great and less so about them.
Improving Collateral and the Excitement Behind NFTs
Improving collateral will reduce BTC volatility going forward, and NFTs are an overheated market that might open up many future opportunities.
Tapering, Disappointing Data, and Lack of Global Growth
Whilst 'Tapering' in 2013 meant higher yields, this time around, if it does take place, it'll likely lead to lower yields.
Charts of the Month - August '21
US Spending vs. Income, SPX:TLT, TSA Traffic, Generational Debt-to-Income, Google & Apple, Share Buybacks
On Inflation vs. Deflation
If you believe in inflation or deflation, chances are, you're somehow right. For now. But we need to dive deep to figure out what the future holds for this 'debate of our time'
Infinite Inflows, China’s Tech Crackdown, and Increased OPEC Pricing Power
Record-high equity inflows promise a continued liquidity bonanza for markets, while the oil supply and demand imbalance is likely to grow more acute than what consensus expects.
Green Bonds' Premium & Sustainability-Linked Debt
Why green bonds have a premium and what sustainability-linked debt is solving for.
Economic vs. Money Growth
Global PMIs are closely correlated with growth in the global money supply. So we asked our contributor network why this matters, and their answers range from fundamental, to techinical, to philosophical (thanks Sune!)
Bitcoin Fundamentals Still Look Healthy
Despite a challenging Q2 price performance, BTC fundamentals continue to highlight healthy developments.
Charts of the Month - July '21
Debt-Driven GDP, Financial Industry Penalties, Nuclear Power, Declining Energy Intensity, Gross Output, GDP per Capita, Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
Mid-Summer Inflation Update
Economic and markets indicators are telling us two different stories about inflation.
The Dollar, Emerging Markets, and Volatility
A surging dollar could have significant implications for reflation, emerging markets, and volatility.
The Inverse Head & Shoulders in the DXY
We asked our contributor network why they believe the Inverse Head & Shoulders forming in the DXY matters. Here are their responses.
Charts of the Month - June '21
CapEx and R&D to Earnings, Share Buybacks, Labor Participation Rates, Uranium Fuel, and Investor Led Rounds
Tapering, The Return of Growth, and Oil's 7-Years High
Tapering is not yet an issue, growth is timidly coming back and oil is near 7 years high.
The Carbon Story: Credits, Offsets, and Sinks
How different carbon programs mechanically work and what they are intended to actually accomplish
Reverse Repo's at All-Time High
The Fed's Reverse Repo facility is at an all-time high. But "Why Does This Chart Matter?" Find out what our contributors think; Mike Green, Jeff Snider, Luke Gromen, Seth Levine, and Roger Hirst
Cryptos and Energy Consumption; Here We Go Again
The energy debate is not new and is brought up in every crypto market cycle.
Market, Corporates and Central Banks’ View on Inflation
Commodity prices and CPI subcomponents continue to flag an increased risk of inflation.
Charts of the Month - May '21
Energy, Copper, AirPods, Wealth Inequality, Transitory Inflation, Pandemic Spending
Measuring Sustainability
Claiming an ESG investment as an “investment for good” is, today, still an exercise of wishful thinking.
Bitcoin to The Fed Balance Sheet
Does the correlation of Bitcoin to the ever-expanding Fed Balance Sheet matter?
Bitcoin: Focus on the Halving Cycle
Bitcoin’s still up +320% in the last 12 months.
Healthier Positioning, Green Politics, and Carbon Allowances
Positioning in the market has become less extreme, especially ahead of what has historically been a lower return period for the stock market.
Charts of the Month - April '21
FinTech, Historic Equity Flows, OPEC Spare Capacity, Market Valuations, and Available Cropland
Corporate Taxes, EM Tech, and New Investing Principles
We find the increased focus on corporate taxes to be a fair and necessary discussion to have, especially given the number of loopholes that corporates are currently benefiting from.
101 in Sustainable Finance
The success or failure of this new investment framework will highly depend on data availability and accuracy, something that needs to significantly improve before sustainable finance can really become mainstream.
The Inverted TIPS Yield Curve
When the TIPS Yield Curve inverts, things tend to happen in a big way
Gold Miners and Energy Alternatives
The reflation trade is still alive, gold miners may provide an outsized opportunity, and the low carbon emission economy is becoming an important long-term economic driver of prices.
The Long-Term Dollar Shortage
The long-term dollar shortage trend is the current monetary state we live in, where global economic growth is outpacing the supply of the global reserve currency.
Bitcoin Foundations Without Tribalism
We need to approach this space with an open mind and without being overly tribalistic.
Short-Term Inflation, Long-Term Unknown
Short-term vs long-term inflation expectations are telling two different stories about the fundamental strength of the economy.
Charts of the Month - February '21
Low rates are Not Inflationary, Commercial Bank Credit, Historical Inflation Subcomponents, Bridgewater’s Outlook, Steepening Yield Curve, and the US Debt Forecast
Primer: The Eurodollar Market
The Eurodollar Market is one of the most influential and least understood drivers of financial markets.
The Acceleration of Retail Participation
Asset price performance has been quite solid across the board and the Yield Curve has continued its steepening, with rates in the long end getting closer to 2%.
Charts of the Month - January - '21
CPI vs. Real Inflation, Chile’s USD Situation, Operation Warp Speed, Oil Rigs & Productivity, Debts, Deficits & the Fed Balance Sheet, and Decomposition Rates of Marine Debris
The Risks to 2021 Consensus Outlook
The reflation narrative has become the overwhelming consensus view for 2021. This implies a weaker dollar, higher bond yields, and outperformance from emerging markets and commodities.
Charts of the Month - December '21
MicroStrategy Converting Fiat to Bitcoin, ZIRP and Intrinsic Valuations, Fed Balance Sheet, Labors Share of Output, Private Capital Flows, and Size of Fiscal Relief Packages
2020: Financial Markets in Retrospective
US Tech, Gold, and Bitcoin did very well, whilst the US Dollar and Crude Oil were the big losers of the year.
Two Possible Types of Reflation
Whilst the potential for inflation has been on the rise recently, we still feel it’s unlikely that we’ll see any undesired increase in price levels at least for the next year.
Charts of the Month - November '21
S&P500 the Fed Balance Sheet, Bitcoin Correlations, Ford and GM Merge to Battle Tesla, Interest on Debt, Real Wage Growth, and ESG Holdings
Financial Markets Post US Elections
What the US elections result has taken away from the reflationary narrative has been more than offset by the vaccines headlines.
The Bear Case for the US Dollar
The dollar bear case with insights from Luke Gromen, Juliette Declercq, and A.G. Bisset
Charts of the Month - October '21
US Dollar Bull Run, Lobbying Spending, US Debt-to-GDP, US Military Spending, and Peak Oil Demand
MMT and the Risks of Limitless Fiscal Spending
Extreme fiscal spending financed by unconventional measures (such as Modern Monetary Theory) is in vogue and a key proposition for the post-Covid world.
Markets’ Volatility Ahead of US Elections
Election years have historically brought positive returns to markets, and since 1944 we only had two election years that were not positive… 2000 (Dot-com Crash) and 2008 (GFC).
Mervyn King’s The End of Alchemy
Notes and key takeaways from Mervyn King's, The End of Alchemy
Austerity and Future Debt Payments
Given the recent $20 trillion of stimulus sponsored by governments and Central Banks all over the world to keep the global economy afloat amidst the COVID pandemic, we asked ourselves who and especially how are we going to pay for this spending regime.
Gold, US Dollar, and the First Hint of Reflation
The US market is still following the same Fed and Government stimulus narrative of the last months, which end ups benefitting the larger and already dominant companies of the US equity market (#tech).
More Stimulus: A Policy Maker’s Playbook
Many global data points appear to be carving out a V-shaped recovery. This is deeply misleading, merely reflecting the depth of the economic decline, rather than the success of the rebound. Leaders are already preparing to add yet more stimulus.
Mike Green on Passive Flows
The most important message coming out of the markets is not the overall severity of the economic crisis, but rather an indicator of the already in place fragile market structure that is being exposed.
Debt, Deficit, and Future Financing
U.S. government debt has grown to +$26 trillion today and for the first time in history, total debt to GDP will rise above 100% in 2021 (potentially 2020 depending on continued COVID response)
The Rise of the Retail Investor
We’ve seen a huge amount of new retail investors joining the financial markets, with the ambition of finding opportunities to “buy the dip”. Whilst they have benefitted from the rebound, we question how much longer can this last.
The Rise of Zombie Firms
The future could see both an increase in bankruptcies and an increase in zombie firms.
Divergence: The Markets Are Not the Economy
We are witnessing one of the largest divergences between the financial markets and the real economy, in history.
Post-COVID Stimulus: Inflation or Deflation?
We can expect to see some level of inflationary bottlenecks, especially in heavy industries which are easily switched off but take time to switch back on.
US Airlines, Bailouts, and Socialized Losses
Looking past the “Bailouts are the end of capitalism” debate, we focus on the fundamentals of what drove the airlines, and the broader market, to allocate capital in a very reckless way
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