Macro
Using Unemployment Data to Time Equity Market Bottoms
How can we use Initial Jobless Claims to time the bottoming of equity markets?
Stock Market Rally, China Rebound in 2H, and Commodity Prices vs Volumes
Stock market rallies could be self-defeating, the likelihood of China rebounding in 2H, and the preference for direct commodities exposure.
The Euro, the State of the Bear Market, and the Need for a Stronger USD
Deep dive into the current macro set-up, with a special focus on Europe, Japan, and the US.
Time to be Contrarian?
Given where consensus stands currently, what are the options for investors?
Yen Weakness, Why It Matters, and Recession Risks
We cover the latest developments around the Japanese Yen, and dissect its implication for Asia and the rest of the World.
Recession Risk Indicator: Yield Curve or Inflation?
Should we look at the yield curve or at inflation levels to assess the real risk of a recession?
The Case for Peak Hawkishness
What if we already reached peak hawkish sentiment?
The US Dollar in 2022: Cautiously Bullish
We look at what the USD did in 2021 and make the case for 2022.
Repricing of Rates, VAR Shocks, and the Dollar
How can monetary policy help solve the problem of higher input prices? It can't.
Tapering, Disappointing Data, and Lack of Global Growth
Whilst 'Tapering' in 2013 meant higher yields, this time around, if it does take place, it'll likely lead to lower yields.
The Dollar, Emerging Markets, and Volatility
A surging dollar could have significant implications for reflation, emerging markets, and volatility.
Market, Corporates and Central Banks’ View on Inflation
Commodity prices and CPI subcomponents continue to flag an increased risk of inflation.