Lykeion Research - June '23

Rebellion in Russia

N.B.: We wrote most of this before the news broke about the Wagner Group rebellion in Russia. All of the content below is still relevant, but we’ve included a short analysis on the developing situation in Russia.

So what: It’s too early to say how this ends. But it is not too early to say what has begun: an attempt to overthrow the government of the Russian Federation. Start preparing for scenarios that include a coup removing Putin from power, a Russian civil war that descends into warlordism, and/or a sudden victory for Ukraine.

Timeline of Events

On Friday, Yevgeny Prigozhin – the caterer-turned-mercenary in-chief who runs the Wagner Group – posted an incendiary message on Telegram.

• Prigozhin has been critical of the Russian government and Ministry of Defense a few times since Russia invaded Ukraine – but this time the critique was sharper.
• He accused Russia’s leaders of conducting a “poorly planned operation” in Ukraine – and said the Russian government’s motives for that invasion were “crazy.”