This month, I have the absolute pleasure of sitting down with the brilliant Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners to discuss the current macro landscape, which appears to be teetering on the edge of recession. There are, however, a number of major recessionary indicators, such as employment, that are still refusing to roll over.
For policymakers, this is a problem. If they see inflation as a bigger evil than a recession, then they may still have to hike further, to ensure that inflation doesn't repeat.
Will policymakers have the stomach to keep tightening if the economy starts to nosedive? Julian doesn't think so. And this could mean a bumpy economic ride over the coming months and years. But that might create an environment with a wide variety of opportunities if investors can adapt in time.
If you want more in-depth Macro plus Geopolitical insights, check out the work Jacob Shapiro and I are doing at Lykeion Research.
Roger and Samantha explore the 2024 outlook for equities, bonds, and the US Dollar, the outlook for wage inflation, and the unintended consequences of the BoJ's monetary policy.
