China Update, an Emerging Poland, and a Bright Brazilian Future

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IN THIS PUBLICATION

• There's no real evidence to suggest China is relaxing its Zero-COVID restrictions anytime soon and the semiconductor ban is really bad
• Don't overlook Poland as a strong investment case with a post-war demographic boom, energy independence, and an opportunistic industrial base
• Forget about the Brazilian elections for a second and realize Brazil is positioned for outsized growth not just in South America, but around the world

This is the second installment of our new Geopolitical Update, with Cognitive Investments (where Jacob is Partner & Director of Geopolitical Analysis). If you want to subscribe to their full weekly report (called The Situation Report), you can subscribe here for free.

A Bit of a Mystery is Brewing in China

At the end of last week, a rumor began making the rounds of Western financial media that Zeng Guang, chief scientist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told a Citi meeting that Beijing’s Zero-COVID-19 policy was about to experience substantial changes (read, eased).

Some rumors even suggest that Beijing has already or will soon assemble an expert team to create a conditional reopening plan to reopen the country by March 2023. Global investors gobbled up the rare bit of positive news; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, jumped 5% on the 'news' and was up almost 12% over the week. But, is it real?