Charts of the Month - September '23
The Big 7 vs. The Old Guard, The U.S. Consumer - Not Dead Yet, and The Dirtiest Cities in the World
We cover the latest developments around the Japanese Yen, and dissect its implication for Asia and the rest of the World.
Should we look at the yield curve or at inflation levels to assess the real risk of a recession?
We look at what the USD did in 2021 and make the case for 2022.
How can monetary policy help solve the problem of higher input prices? It can't.
Whilst 'Tapering' in 2013 meant higher yields, this time around, if it does take place, it'll likely lead to lower yields.
A surging dollar could have significant implications for reflation, emerging markets, and volatility.
Commodity prices and CPI subcomponents continue to flag an increased risk of inflation.
We find the increased focus on corporate taxes to be a fair and necessary discussion to have, especially given the number of loopholes that corporates are currently benefiting from.
Short-term vs long-term inflation expectations are telling two different stories about the fundamental strength of the economy.
The reflation narrative has become the overwhelming consensus view for 2021. This implies a weaker dollar, higher bond yields, and outperformance from emerging markets and commodities.
Whilst the potential for inflation has been on the rise recently, we still feel it’s unlikely that we’ll see any undesired increase in price levels at least for the next year.