Roger Hirst

Roger Hirst

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

Tapering, Disappointing Data, and Lack of Global Growth

Whilst 'Tapering' in 2013 meant higher yields, this time around, if it does take place, it'll likely lead to lower yields.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

The Dollar, Emerging Markets, and Volatility

A surging dollar could have significant implications for reflation, emerging markets, and volatility.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

Market, Corporates and Central Banks’ View on Inflation

Commodity prices and CPI subcomponents continue to flag an increased risk of inflation.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

Corporate Taxes, EM Tech, and New Investing Principles

We find the increased focus on corporate taxes to be a fair and necessary discussion to have, especially given the number of loopholes that corporates are currently benefiting from.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

Short-Term Inflation, Long-Term Unknown

Short-term vs long-term inflation expectations are telling two different stories about the fundamental strength of the economy.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

The Risks to 2021 Consensus Outlook

The reflation narrative has become the overwhelming consensus view for 2021. This implies a weaker dollar, higher bond yields, and outperformance from emerging markets and commodities.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

Two Possible Types of Reflation

Whilst the potential for inflation has been on the rise recently, we still feel it’s unlikely that we’ll see any undesired increase in price levels at least for the next year.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

MMT and the Risks of Limitless Fiscal Spending

Extreme fiscal spending financed by unconventional measures (such as Modern Monetary Theory) is in vogue and a key proposition for the post-Covid world.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

Austerity and Future Debt Payments

Given the recent $20 trillion of stimulus sponsored by governments and Central Banks all over the world to keep the global economy afloat amidst the COVID pandemic, we asked ourselves who and especially how are we going to pay for this spending regime.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

More Stimulus: A Policy Maker’s Playbook

Many global data points appear to be carving out a V-shaped recovery. This is deeply misleading, merely reflecting the depth of the economic decline, rather than the success of the rebound. Leaders are already preparing to add yet more stimulus.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

The Rise of Zombie Firms

The future could see both an increase in bankruptcies and an increase in zombie firms.

Roger Hirst
Markets
Members Public

Post-COVID Stimulus: Inflation or Deflation?

We can expect to see some level of inflationary bottlenecks, especially in heavy industries which are easily switched off but take time to switch back on.